Pokémon Delta Reign Pull Rates: Odds for Mega Rayquaza ex and Every Rarity

Short answer: Pokémon Delta Reign comes out November 6, and its pull rates should match the last four Mega Evolution sets. Expect a Special Illustration Rare in about 1 in 80 packs, an Illustration Rare in 1 in 9, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 12 and a Double Rare in 1 in 5. The gold Mega Hyper Rare Mega Rayquaza ex is roughly 1 in 1,081 packs, and the Special Illustration Rare Mega Rayquaza ex is about 1 in 480. Pokémon doesn’t publish official odds. These numbers come from TCGplayer opening more than 4,000 packs of Pitch Black, whose rates matched the three sets before it.

Updated October 19, 2026 · Pull rates from TCGplayer’s Pitch Black study · Card counts from The Pokémon Company · Prices from TCGplayer, checked October 19, 2026 · We’ll update this with real Delta Reign data after release

Keep Reading: Delta Reign Chase Cards: The Most Valuable Cards to Pull · Pokémon Delta Reign: Release Date, Price and What to Preorder

Who this is for: Pokémon collectors deciding how much Delta Reign to open, and anyone chasing Mega Rayquaza ex who wants to know the real odds before spending.

What are the Delta Reign pull rates?

The rarity odds are TCGplayer’s measured rates for Pitch Black. TCGplayer found Pitch Black matched Phantasmal Flames, Perfect Order and Chaos Rising, and Delta Reign is the next set in that line, with almost the same layout. The specific-card odds divide each rarity’s rate by Delta Reign’s card counts, which assumes every card at a rarity is equally common. The Mega Hyper Rare number is the least precise, because so few turn up even in thousands of packs.

How rare is Mega Rayquaza ex in Delta Reign?

Mega Rayquaza ex has three secret versions, and each one is harder to pull than the last:

• Full-art Ultra Rare: about 1 in 205 packs
• Special Illustration Rare: about 1 in 480 packs
• Gold Mega Hyper Rare: about 1 in 1,081 packs

The same cards are already out in Japan’s Storm Emeralda. The Japanese gold version sells for about $827 on TCGplayer, the Special Art Rare for about $282 and the full-art Super Rare for about $27. English prices won’t match exactly: in the last English set, the Special Illustration Rare ended up worth more than the gold card.

Japanese Storm Emeralda versions shown. Image: The Pokémon Company

What will you pull from a Delta Reign booster box?

A Delta Reign booster box has 36 packs. Based on the rates above, an average box gives you:

• About 7 or 8 Double Rares
• About 4 Illustration Rares
• About 3 Ultra Rares
• About a 36% chance of at least one Special Illustration Rare
• About a 7% chance of the Special Illustration Rare Mega Rayquaza ex
• About a 3% chance of the gold Mega Rayquaza ex

An Elite Trainer Box has 9 packs, which works out to about an 11% chance of any Special Illustration Rare and about 2% for the Mega Rayquaza one.

What’s the cheapest way to open Delta Reign?

The booster box is by far the cheapest per pack. The Elite Trainer Box is the most expensive way to open packs right now, at more than double its $49.99 MSRP, though it does come with sleeves and other extras.

Should you open packs or buy Mega Rayquaza as a single?

Buy the single if Mega Rayquaza is what you want. At about $6.69 a pack from booster boxes, the 480 packs you’d expect to open for the Special Illustration Rare cost around $3,200. The Japanese version of that card sells for about $282. The English one could land somewhere different, but almost certainly nowhere near $3,200.

Open packs if you enjoy the opening itself, or if you’re building a full set. Booster boxes give you the most cards for the money, and prices for sealed product usually soften once the set has been out a few weeks.

What to skip

• Elite Trainer Boxes above MSRP just to open. At about $12.82 a pack, they’re nearly double the booster box price per pack.
• Chasing a specific Special Illustration Rare with packs. One in 480 is a long shot, even across several boxes.
• Single packs at $11.92 or more. That’s close to twice what a pack costs inside a booster box.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the pull rates for Pokémon Delta Reign?
Based on the last four Mega Evolution sets: a Special Illustration Rare in about 1 in 80 packs, an Illustration Rare in 1 in 9, an Ultra Rare in 1 in 12, a Double Rare in 1 in 5 and a Mega Hyper Rare in about 1 in 1,081.

What are the odds of pulling Mega Rayquaza ex in Delta Reign?
About 1 in 205 packs for the full art, 1 in 480 for the Special Illustration Rare and 1 in 1,081 for the gold Mega Hyper Rare.

How many packs are in a Delta Reign booster box?
36 packs. An Elite Trainer Box has 9 and a Booster Bundle has 6.

How many Special Illustration Rares are in a Delta Reign booster box?
About 0.45 on average, so roughly a 36% chance of at least one per box.

When does Delta Reign come out?
November 6, 2026, with prerelease events from October 24.

Next step: If you’re opening, a booster box is the best value. If you want Mega Rayquaza, check what each version is worth in our Delta Reign chase cards guide, and protect your best pulls with our card protection guide. Heading to a prerelease? Read the Delta Reign prerelease guide.

Sources: rarity pull rates from TCGplayer’s Pitch Black Pull Rates study (4,000+ packs, July 2026); Delta Reign card counts from The Pokémon Company via TCGplayer’s Delta Reign overview; prices from TCGplayer, checked October 19, 2026. Images: The Pokémon Company, via TCGplayer (Mega Rayquaza cards shown are the Japanese Storm Emeralda versions).